Work package 4

Leader: Gideon Gal (IOL)

 

This WP will aim to integrate the near real time HFM data products from WP2 with available long-term data and ecosystem models in order to produce reliable short and long-term simulations. Organization and running of the models will be conducted within the state of the art Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models (FABM). The benefit of this is that it allows the user to automate tasks that would otherwise render model comparison and coupling impractical. These include coupling different hydrodynamic models with user-selected ecological models, simplified reading of meteorological forcing, and physicochemical profiler data to be assimilated, and execution of the model with data assimilation during runtime. The project will use GOTM and MyLake as physical driver models coupled with FABM. The products will include short-term ecosystem simulations, with a focus on phytoplankton blooms and dissolved organic matter (DOM), in an attempt to simulate into the immediate future (week-10 days) given the available weather forcing data and forecasting uncertainty.

We will further attempt to assimilate the near real time data into the model runs in order to improve calibration and performance. In addition, we will endeavor to extend the simulations beyond the range of the available short-terms data forecasts, by providing an envelope of probable future conditions (weeks-months scale), based on historical data. A key product will be short-term (days) forecasting followed by diverging long-term (weeks-months) probable forecasts based on possible future conditions. Completion of long-term forecasting is dependent on the achievement of the short-term forecasting.