Welcome to the PROGNOS blog!
This is a place where the groups working on the PROGNOS project exchange information on the progress they are making in modelling, data analysis or cost-benefit analysis in the project. For example, in developing model simulations of lake thermal structure and water quality the blog presents modellers efforts to better calibrate and verify their simulations; efforts to simulate case studies events; efforts to develop water quality forecasts.
The blog is a dynamic, living document aimed at improving project communication and efficiency. As such it may at times be a bit technical and difficult to completely understand. Still, we hope the project stakeholders and others will find it interesting to follow our progress.
A central aim of the PROGNOS project is to couple short term weather forecasts with lake models, in order to produce real time forecasts of water quality. To do this, we need to calibrate and parameterise 1D hydrodynamic models (which … Continued
Lake Erken is one site where PROGNOS models are being tested and developed. The Erken Laboratory run by Uppsala University has been a site for limnological research since 1946 (Pettersson 2012), but in early years the research efforts were linked … Continued
Introduction Sensitivity analysis is used in modelling to identify which parameters and forcing data variables that a model is sensitive to (Bueche & Vetter, 2014; Pianosi et al., 2016). This procedure is beneficial because it: 1) helps in the understanding … Continued
To optimize data applicability and smooth the step from data collection to data utilization a new QA/QC procedure has been developed for the experimental lake facility in Lemming. The workflow is intended to be executed automatically on a daily basis … Continued
Have you ever wondered what it costs to install automated high frequency monitoring equipment in a lake and how this could be beneficial for you? In PROGNOS we started to collect data about the costs for basic monitoring equipment, single … Continued
Test of calibration tool for Danish lakes In the modelling group in Denmark, we have for some time been testing the autocalibration tool developed by BB – i.e. “acpy”. Acpy is currently running for the main Prognos site in Denmark … Continued
Waters draining peatland catchments often have a brown colour due to high levels of dissolved organic matter (DOM) leached from the peaty soils. These organic substances can react with chlorine that is added as a disinfectant during water treatment to … Continued
In this post, Dr. Elvira de Eyto (@edeeyto) introduces one of the PROGNOS case study sites, Lough Feeagh, and describes the historical development of the data collection that is now used in the modelling and forecasting WPs of PROGNOS. Lough … Continued
Setting up the GOTM/FABM framework, from compilation from source to running a calibration requires a sequence of steps that can easily be mixed-up. To remind me of the actions that need to be taken, I setup a Jupyter notebook describing … Continued
The Lake Erken GOTM model has been tested and calibrated using two different data sets. The first data set is for an 11 year period between 2006 and 2016. To judge the performance of the model, and to also provide … Continued